COVID-19 projections improve for Oregon, not for Washington


Peak resource use also predicted to happen later than originally projected

CLACKAMAS COUNTY, Ore. (KOIN) — A model predicting state-by-state COVID-19 deaths and resource use suggests Oregon could be making progress flattening the curve.

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine developed the interactive analysis in response to governments and hospital systems trying to figure out when COVID-19 would overwhelm their ability to care for patients, according to a press release. It is updated daily, and previously showed Oregon dealing with a shortage of intensive care unit beds.

Tuesday morning, the model showed no bed shortage. The peak hospital resource use date shifted nearly two weeks, from April 24 to May 6.

Updated models predict Oregon’s peak resource use will now occur May 6 (IHME, March 31, 2020)

Projected fatalities are also down to 566 COVID-19 deaths by early August (the model previously projected 584).

Updated models predict Oregon will have 566 COVID-19 deaths by early August (IHME model, March 31, 2020)

Washington’s updated outlook was not as promising. The state is still expected to face a shortage of ICU beds. Total projected deaths by early August also increased from 1,429 (when KOIN 6 News checked the models on Sunday) to 1,621 as of Tuesday morning.

IHME updates the forecasts based on new information from sources including local and national government, the World Health Organization, government declarations on implementation of social distancing policies, American Hospital Association data, and age-specific death rate data from China, Italy, South Korea and the United States. You can see the interactive models here.

Continuing Coverage: Coronavirus

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