Model: Peak of COVID pandemic weeks away in Oregon, Washington


Data analysis developed by researchers at the University of Washington

PORTLAND, Ore. (KOIN) — An analysis from researchers at the University of Washington predicts approximately 81,000 people in the United States will die from coronavirus over the next four months. Hospitals and other care facilities across the country could be overwhelmed with patients as soon as the second week of April.

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at UW’s School of Medicine developed the analysis in response to governments and hospital systems trying to figure out when COVID-19 would overwhelm their ability to care for patients, according to a press release.

The analysis is based on observed death rates, and projects state-by-state demand for hospital services such as ventilators and hospital beds.

A new analysis predicts Oregon will have 584 COVID-19 deaths by early August (IHME)

In Oregon, the model predicts hospital resource use will peak on April 24. It predicts there will be a shortage of nine intensive care unit beds. However, overall beds available in the state exceed the projected need by more than 1,000.

The model projects deaths will peak four days earlier at 14 COVID-19 fatalities per day.

In Washington, the outlook is concerning. Roughly 1,429 Washingtonians will die from COVID-19 by early August, according to the prediction. The deaths are projected to peak at 27 per-day on April 16. Resource use is expected to peak on April 19, and Washington is projected to come up short by nearly 100 ICU beds.

A data analysis from the University of Washington School of Medicine projects 1,429 COVID-19 deaths in Washington by early August (IHME)

Overall, IHME’s forecast predicts 41 states “will need more ICU beds than they currently have available.” The researchers urged adherence to strong social distancing measures to “mitigate hospital system overload and prevent deaths.”

You can see the interactive projections here.

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