OHA: Epidemic slowed since March, transmissions up since reopening


'In our most optimistic scenario, the effective reproduction number is estimated to be currently at about one'

(AP Photo/Nardus Engelbrecht)

PORTLAND, Ore. (KOIN) — Results from a new report on COVID-19 from the Oregon Health Authority suggest the epidemic has slowed in Oregon since its beginning, but that transmission appears to be increasing since reopening.

COVID-19 Epidemic Trends and Projections in Oregon was produced to describe the trends in COVID-19 since Oregon began to re-open, and project trends over the next month assuming different scenarios. While OHA reported that the agrressive community interventions in Oregon were effective in sharply reducing transmission of the coronavirus, there are still many hurdles ahead — particularly in regards to transmission.

Since the start of reopening began on May 15, transmission of the virus has increased.

“It is too early to accurately estimate the effects of phased reopening on changes in COVID19 trends,” OHA said in the report. “Because of this, we made three different assumptions about the recent COVID19 trends for our projections.”

Most optimistic assumption:
We assumed a 10 percentage point increase in transmission after re-opening on May 15th. This model fit the hospitalization trend in late May well and assumed that trend would continue. It assumed the more pronounced increase in hospitalizations in the last few days of data (June 2nd-4th) was only a temporary increase.

* Under this scenario, the number of new infections per day will remain relatively stable over the next month.

Less optimistic assumption:
We assumed a slightly larger increase in transmission (15 percentage points) after May 15th, which fit the recent observed hospitalization and diagnoses trends better.

* Under this scenario, the number of new infections per day will gradually increase over the next month.

More pessimistic assumption:
We assumed a 15 percentage point increase in transmission after May 15th, as in the “less optimistic” scenario, plus an additional 10 percentage point increase in transmission after May 25th. By doing so, this model assumed that the recent increase in the number of new diagnoses is indicative of increased transmission, rather than largely due to increased testing.

* Under this scenario, the number of new infections per day will increase more dramatically. Compared to the most optimistic scenario, this model projects about 14,000 more cumulative infections (35,400 vs. 21,400), 925 more new infections per day (1,040 vs. 115), and 17 more new severe cases per day (22 vs. 5) by July 3rd.

Read the full report below:

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