OHA’s latest COVID-19 forecast is optimistic


A COVID patient in an Oregon hospital during 2020 (File)

PORTLAND, Ore. (KOIN) — The Oregon Health Authority’s latest COVID-19 forecast looks promising.

Daily cases and hospitalizations in Oregon are expected to continue falling for the two-week period between Oct. 27 and Nov. 9, OHA said.

The report is based on estimated “effective reproduction rates,” or the expected number of secondary cases that a single case causes.

At a projected reproduction rate of .90, OHA estimates 225 cases for every 100,000 people, which equates to about 770 daily cases and 45 hospitalizations. But based on the potential impact from the projected spread of the coronavirus from Sept. 30 through Oct. 2, the reproduction rate may be .82 which would lead to roughly 555 new daily cases and 31 hospitalizations, the OHA said.

The latest report also noted a “significant contrast” between unvaccinated and vaccinated people when it comes to wearing masks and social distancing. OHA said mask-wearing among unvaccinated people is about half the rate of vaccinated people, and unvaccinated people are more likely to attend large outdoor events.

Officials continue to recommend wearing masks indoors in public and when outdoors among crowds.

To date, more than 2.79 million Oregonians have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine series and 2.58 million people are fully vaccinated.

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