PORTLAND, Ore. (KOIN) — The current rate of COVID-19 transmission in the state of Oregon continued a downward trend in the week ending September 10, a trend that began in mid-July.
The Oregon Health Authority released their latest modeling on the novel coronavirus on Friday, a day they reported another 295 confirmed/presumptive COVID cases but no new deaths.
But they also pointed out these models should be taken with caution, since the wildfire smoke interrupted testing for 3 days.
The transmission rate shows each case is generating less than one other case, OHA said.
In their latest 3 models, health officials said if the transmission rate —
- stays as it is, daily infections would fall from 360 to 190 by October 8. Severe cases (needing hospitalization) would fall to 6 and the reproduction rate would stay at .87.
- declines by 5%, over the next month there would be 130 daily infections. New daily cases would decline to 50. Severe cases would drop to 4, and the reproduction rate would be .74.
- rises by 5% over the next month, the model projects 400 new daily infections with new daily cases rising by 80. Under this scenario, severe cases would double from six to 12. Also the reproduction rate would rise to 1.0, reversing the progress made recently.
The overall case total in Oregon now stands at 30,342. On Friday, Multnomah County led all 24 counties with 56 new cases. Marion County had 51, Washington County 36 and Clackamas County 28.
The other counties are: Baker (1), Benton (4), Clatsop (3), Coos (2), Deschutes (7), Douglas (5), Hood River (1), Jackson (14), Jefferson (2), Klamath (2), Lake (1), Lane (20), Linn (5), Malheur (20), Morrow (7), Polk (4), Tillamook (2), Umatilla (16), Wasco (3) and Yamhill (5).
The death toll remain unchanged at 521.
County Watch List update
Umatilla and Morrow counties were removed from the state’s COVID Watch List, and Morrow County was also approved to move to Phase 2 reopening, Gov. Kate Brown’s office said Friday.
The County Watch List lets the state prioritize resources and assistance to counties that are seeing the broadest spread of COVID-19.
Malheur County remains on the Watch List. The governor’s office said the while “county officials and community members have been working hard to stem the spread of COVID-19, Malheur County faces particular challenges, including the county’s proximity to Idaho and the amount of travel back and forth across the state border. Idaho continues to have some of the highest rates of COVID-19 infections in the country, and the communities across the border from Malheur County are among the hardest hit by the virus. Bringing infection rates down in Malheur County will require state and local officials across the border to do their part as well.”