Oregon COVID models: ‘Exponential growth’ over next 2 weeks


38-year-old Marion County man who did not have underlying conditions died

PORTLAND, Ore. (KOIN) — On the day Gov. Kate Brown announced a 2-week freeze and new restrictions in the ongoing battle against the coronavirus, the Oregon Health Authority reported 1076 new confirmed/presumed cases — the second straight day the total has been above 1000.

These new cases, just shy of the Thursday record of 1122 cases, brings the overall total of cases in Oregon since the pandemic began to 54,937.

Another 7 people died from the novel coronavirus, bringing that total to 753. One of those people was a 38-year-old Marion County man who did not have underlying conditions.

The latest modeling released by the OHA indicates “a steep increase” in the spread of COVID-19 since early November. Models show that one case of coronavirus generates another 1.25 to 1.69 cases, a greater than one-to-one ratio that is troubling.

A graph released by the Oregon Health Authority shows the trajectory of COVID-19 in Oregon, November 13, 2020

The models only include data through November 6, yet indicate a potential “exponential” growth to about 1500 cases per day over the next 2 weeks.

“According to the model, if Oregonians collectively wear masks, keep physical distance, restrict social gatherings and maintain good hand hygiene to slow the spread of the virus, new cases would remain historically high for a short time before decreasing,” OHA said in a release.

Once again officials pleaded with Oregonians to “rethink their social activities,” particularly with the upcoming holidays.

Where the cases are

Oregon has 36 counties. In the Friday report, the 1076 cases were spread out over 33 of those counties. Nearly half of those cases — 490 — came from the tri-county area. Marion County recorded 123 cases.

The full list of counties in Friday’s report is: Baker (6), Benton (18), Clackamas (95), Clatsop (1), Columbia (4), Coos (6), Crook (3), Curry (1), Deschutes (28), Douglas (26), Gilliam (1), Harney (6), Hood River (2), Jackson (91), Jefferson (15), Josephine (7), Klamath (4), Lake (4), Lane (77), Lincoln (2), Linn (15), Malheur (39), Marion (123), Morrow (3), Multnomah (247), Polk (14), Tillamook (4), Umatilla (40), Union (10), Wallowa (2), Wasco (3), Washington (148), and Yamhill (31).

The latest deaths

The 7 people who died ranged in age from 38 to 87. Two lived in Multnomah County, two in Marion, two in Jackson and one in Benton County. All but one had underlying conditions.

Officials continue to say the best way to keep the coronavirus from spreading is to minimize close contact with others, work from home to the extent possible, limit social gatherings, reconsider holiday plans to keep them to a small group and reduce social interactions with people outside of your household.

Continuing Coverage: Coronavirus

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