Oregon releases new modeling projection for COVID-19


PORTLAND, Ore. (KOIN) — The same day Oregon announced a grim milestone in the state’s battle against the COVID-19 pandemic, health officials released the state’s latest modeling projection.

The modeling from the Oregon Health Authority shows the virus’ effective reproductive rate, which is the number of secondary cases a single case produces, is estimated to be 1.25 as of Nov. 19, which was the day after Gov. Kate Brown’s statewide freeze was enacted.

Despite more Oregonians heeding the warning to stay home and physically distance, the modeling from the Oregon Health Authority shows the current the current level of transmission could give rise to “exponential” growth, resulting in about 2,000 new cases a day and about 75 hospitalizations per day by Dec. 24.

If the spread of COVID-19 mirrors the levels from mid-October, the state could see up to 2,700 cases each day, with up to 110 hospitalizations per day.

OHA’s latest model takes into account the Thanksgiving holiday, health officials said.

On Friday, state health officials reported record-breaking numbers of new deaths and cases. Thirty more deaths were reported, bringing the state’s death toll past 1,000, while 2,176 new confirmed and presumptive COVID-19 cases were reported, bringing the state’s total number of cases past 80,000.

Read the full modeling below:

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