PORTLAND, Ore. (KOIN) — On the day the Oregon Health Authority released 3 new modeling scenarios for the spread of COVID-19 in the state, the death toll rose to 563 and the overall cases to 34,163.
The deaths of an 80-year-old Wasco County woman, an 83-year-old Lane County man and an 84-year-old man in Marion County were recorded Friday. All had underlying conditions.
Of the 314 new confirmed/presumptive cases recorded, 66 were in Washington County, the most in the 25 counties that reported cases. Multnomah County had 59 cases.
The other counties with cases Friday are: Baker (1), Benton (8), Clackamas (15), Clatsop (3), Columbia (1), Coos (2), Deschutes (4), Douglas (3), Hood River (1), Jackson (13), Jefferson (1), Josephine (8), Klamath (4), Lane (39), Lincoln (1), Linn (6), Malheur (12), Marion (37), Morrow (1), Polk (5), Umatilla (12), Wasco (2) and Yamhill (10).
Also Friday, Gov. Kate Brown added Benton and Clatsop counties to the state’s Watch List, joining Malheur County as an area where COVID-19 is spreading rapidly and officials can’t trace it to a specific source.
The OHA modeling scenarios includes the time period when the wildfires erupted in Oregon and slowed coronavirus testing. These scenarios also assume 4500 tests per day. Officials also said these models should be taken with caution because of the testing uncertainty.
Optimistic: Assumes a 5% increase on September 5, but attributes an increase in diagnosed cases after September 15 to that decline in testing. By October 22, “new infections would increase from 680 to 800, resulting in about 270 daily cases. Severe cases – those requiring hospitalization – would increase to 24, and a reproduction rate would be 1.04, meaning that someone with the virus is passing it to more than one person.”
Moderate: Assumes a 7% increase from September 5, but attributes fewer of the increased diagnosed cases to increased transmission. “By October 22, new daily cases would increase by 120, with one additional severe case and a reproduction rate of 1.12. Based on COVID-19 data through Sept. 24 the model is consistent with increases in transmission throughout May, followed by decreases in transmission through late July and declining cases in August.”
Pessimistic: Assumes a 10% increase in transmission after September 5 and attributes some of the higher cases to be increased transmission instead of a lack of testing. “By October 22, there would be approximately 900 new infections and about 300 new daily cases, with eight more severe cases and a reproduction rate of 1.17.”