PORTLAND, Ore. (KOIN) – We start the day with few clouds, mostly sunny and temperatures in the mid to upper 50s. Temperatures in the valley will be near average (80°) today and Saturday. That would make it our first 80° day for this month of July. Remember May and June when we had a few 90s sprinkled in there? Nothing like that showing up in the 7-day forecast. On average, PDX has been running ~3.5° below normal.
The weekend continues with mostly sunny skies and temps in the upper 70s to 80 Saturday. For Saturday afternoon/evening gusty winds and low relative humidity leads to a Fire Weather Watch for south-central Oregon. Read details about this Watch here.
Sunday morning an ever so slight chance for a light sprinkle that won’t amount to more than a trace, then it’s partly cloudy for the day.
Do these cooler than normal temperatures for July make us that much safer this fire season? No. If you’re curious about our wildfire potential this summer, keep reading. The KOIN 6 Weather Team has been monitoring rainfall trends, drought conditions, and working closely with fire specialists to get you through the summer safely. Tune into our digital special to learn more about what experts are saying about the 2020 wildfire season in Oregon & Washington. Find the video by clicking HERE.
Looking way down the road, what kind of fall and winter could we be dealing with? I’ll summarize that answer with these 3 words from the Climate Prediction Center: La Niña Watch. Read on to learn more.
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña WatchCLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is favored to continue through the summer, with a 50-55% chance of La
Niña development during Northern Hemisphere fall 2020 and continuing through winter 2020-21
During June 2020, sea surface temperatures (SST) were near average in the east-central equatorial
Pacific and below average in the eastern Pacific (Fig. 1). The Niño-4 and Niño-3.4 indices were near zero
during the latest week, while the Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 indices were negative (Fig. 2). Negative
equatorial subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged across 180°-100°W) weakened from May through
June (Fig. 3). However, below-average subsurface temperatures continued in the eastern equatorial
Pacific (Fig. 4). Also during the month, low-level wind anomalies were easterly across the east-central
Pacific, while upper-level wind anomalies were westerly over parts of the far western and eastern Pacific.
Tropical convection was suppressed over the western and central Pacific, and near average over Indonesia
(Fig. 5). Overall, the combined oceanic and atmospheric system is consistent with ENSO-neutral.
The models in the IRI/CPC plume (Fig. 6) are roughly split between La Niña and ENSO-neutral
(Niño-3.4 index between -0.5°C and +0.5°C) during the fall and winter. Based largely on dynamical
model guidance, the forecaster consensus slightly favors La Niña development during the August-October
season, and then lasting through the remainder of 2020. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored to continue
through the summer, with a 50-55% chance of La Niña development during Northern Hemisphere fall
2020 and continuing through winter 2020-21 (~50% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the
chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).
This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric
conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current
Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPC’s
Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog.
The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 13 August 2020.
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
9 July 2020
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