No rain November? Monitoring possible Oregon drought conditions

Weather

So far, there's been no rain for the month of November, and we may have a hard time getting to our monthly average

PORTLAND, Ore. (KOIN) – Improvements are the name of the game when it comes to chipping away at our drought conditions. Thankfully, a wet September and early October pushed us in the right direction. It may have been just in time, because we are hitting a dry stretch in one of our more wet months, with little rain in the forecast for the next seven days.

If we look back two months to Sept. 5, you can see how a large chunk of NW Oregon and NW Washington were still plagued with moderate to severe drought conditions. According to the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), zero percent of the state of Oregon population is in a drought at this time. The graphics below show the transition from September 5 to November 5.

Here is where our current concern builds: we are actively sitting at .00″ of rain as of Nov. 5. The forecast is calling for little to no rain until potentially midweek of Nov. 10-16 (models are favoring little rain until then). The “Futurecast” for Sunday morning is depicting a small amount of moisture moving into NW Oregon, but it’s far from impressive.

Unless we have a soaking second half of the month (which is totally possible), we may have a hard time getting to our average November rain, which is 5.63″ at the Portland Airport. That would call for over 5 inches of rain from Nov. 15-30, which is likely not going to happen, but we are susceptible to heavy doses of water this time of the year. In the past, we’ve accumulated more than 4 inches in 24 hours. That is a lot of water! You may remember that timeframe, November 18-19, 1996. It just takes one moisture-driven atmospheric river to really see the rain quickly add up in November.

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