Rain likely to stay amid active weather pattern

Weather

Dynamics are favoring a transition to wet weather; however, some models are backing off a washed out weekend

PORTLAND, Ore. (KOIN) – Tuesday was the first rainy morning commute that we’ve had all month thanks to a weak front kicking up a few showers from the Oregon coast to Portland, now moving into the Cascade Range.

We already know it has been a dry November, but hopes are for a more active pattern to develop the remainder of the month.

However, I would like to stress, that this forecast is not set in stone. Dynamics are favoring a transition to wet weather; however, weather models have already started to back off on the weekend rain. Relatively speaking, it will feel like the rain is here to stay compared to earlier in the month.

Browsing through the gallery, you can see two major weather models and what they are computing for the next six days. I’ve pulled the events that are likely to bring in the rain for the Pacific Northwest.

Plan now for Friday morning likely starting with another wet commute. It also looks like it should be a little more moisture driven compared to what we’ve accomplished so far on this Tuesday. Notice how one weather model is pushing rain totals to about half an inch, while the other is quite lower, computing .15″ for Portland. We will likely see something in between, but I would favor the lower end at this time with totals around .25″ for the valley Friday.

If you go and look at both “futurecast” images for Sunday, a majority of the moisture remains to the north or offshore. At this time, the weekend could actually turn out dry, but we are still days out and changes will likely develop. It’s likely that locations like Astoria and southwest Washington will gather the bulk of the weekend moisture with the current tracking of the system.

A reminder of some of our November rain stats, including our average rain for the month that is 5.63″. We are either in store for a wet finish to the month or we will have a hard time reaching that goal.

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